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Ontario has taken significant steps to address housing affordability and supply, with taxes and government fees accounting for nearly 36% of a new home's cost—meaning that more than a third of the price is driven by factors beyond just construction. In many municipalities, development charges alone have exceeded $100,000 per single-family home, and when combined with other levies, these costs can reach up to $200,000. Recently, a collaborative federal-provincial initiative allowed municipalities to access additional funding if they reduced residential development charges by 30% to 50% or more and maintained those reductions for three years. Following the HST cut, Ontario saw 8,400 new home sales in the first three months—more than double the 3,600 sales recorded in the same period in previous years. If the HST rebate and lower development charges became permanent, it would provide much-needed certainty for buyers, builders, and municipalities alike, paving the way for improved affordability and a stronger housing supply. As someone who has guided clients through all facets of the Ontario real estate market for over 15 years, I recognize how these policy shifts can create real opportunities for both homeowners and investors.

Toronto has just unveiled an ambitious plan to tackle the city’s rental housing shortage: a partnership set to deliver 5,600 new rental homes, with $2.7 billion in federal support and over $700 million from the city. As someone who’s worked with buyers, renters, and investors across the GTA for over 15 years, I know how much impact new supply can have on our communities. Still, while the announcement highlights supportive housing, deep affordable units, mixed-income projects, and long-term rent control, it leaves us waiting for specifics—especially around how many homes will truly be accessible for lower-income Torontonians. Another point that caught my attention: the province was not at the table, which is rare for an initiative of this scale. Experience tells me that a balanced market is about more than just new rentals; true affordability comes when governments also focus on homeownership, ground-oriented options, and smart densification. Every new project is a step, but long-term solutions require clear details and broad cooperation.

In the early third quarter, GTA condo buyers have maintained a strong position. Sales reached 1,560 units—virtually unchanged from last year—while the region’s benchmark price dropped about 7% to $535,200. New condo listings surged to 4,190, more than double completed sales, which has kept active supply high and put buyers in the driver’s seat when it comes to negotiating. On average, condos across the GTA sold for close to 97% of their asking price, taking about 40 days on the market—an indicator that properties are moving more slowly and sellers are facing stiffer competition.

There are still notable price differences across the GTA: Toronto’s (416) average condo price stood at $672,800 in early Q3, while units in the 905 averaged $560,900, with softer pricing especially outside the city core. While officials note that improvements in growth and employment could boost market confidence in the coming months, the GTA condo market remains in flux due to continued high supply.

Drawing on my experience navigating both shifting and stable markets since 2009, I see these conditions as both a challenge and an opportunity for buyers and sellers. In this environment, informed decisions and effective negotiation are more important than ever. Through Lucky Homes Realty, I remain committed to providing clients with the insight and guidance needed to make confident real estate moves across the GTA.

The Greater Toronto market is showing some signs of cooling as we move into early Q3, with approximately 6,000 home sales—a slight 1% decline year-over-year after several months of gains. However, it’s worth noting that sales activity still improved by about 3% compared to the previous month. The average selling price sits around $1 million, while the typical-home benchmark has dipped about 5% year-over-year. This indicates that buyers continue to have some leverage in negotiations across many GTA neighbourhoods.

Looking at the breakdown by housing type, detached home sales edged up 1% from last year, while semi-detached sales dropped 6%, townhouses were down 3%, and condo apartments remained nearly unchanged. On the supply side, new listings tightened significantly—dropping 18% year-over-year to roughly 14,500, while active listings fell 12% to about 26,100. This means fewer fresh options for buyers across the GTA.

As someone who has guided clients through various market cycles since 2009, I pay close attention to how shifts in supply and buyer leverage affect opportunities for buyers, sellers, and investors. With sales taking a larger share of listings, the current landscape suggests that if confidence returns, we could see more balanced conditions—and potentially less room for price negotiation as supply tightens further. Staying informed is key to making confident real estate decisions, and I remain committed to helping my clients navigate these evolving market dynamics with expert advice and a client-first approach.